: Do not judge the quality of a decision based solely on its outcome. A "good" decision can still lead to a "bad" result due to luck, just as a poor decision can occasionally yield a positive one. Think in Percentages
: A mental time-travel tool that asks how you will feel about a decision in 10 minutes, 10 months, and 10 years. This helps minimize emotional reactions and focuses on long-term goals. Pre-Mortems & Backcasting Backcasting thinking in bets annie duke pdf link